KANSAS IMPRESSES THE ASSISTANT COACH WITH CHANGING DEFENSE

Coach Bill Self took a major step toward greatness when he decided to use the box in 1 defense to shut down Stephen Curry late in the game. Kansas did not let Curry catch the ball as the other players played a zone. Curry could not get an open look and Kansas was able to extend their lead slightly. Though he did not stick with this defense at the end of the game, it still gave Kansas the needed adjustment at key times. Too many teams get so locked into what they do (aka Washington State) that they fear changing defenses. My motto is don't let the other team do what it wants to do. Changing defenses does many things during a basketball game:

It changes tempo

It takes away a hot shooter

It can save you some fouls

It can get you some steals

It can throw the offense off rhythm

It can take away an inside presence

Kansas changed defense at the right time and made Davidson do things they were not use to doing during the course of the game. Basketball coaches need to be more flexible when the game calls for it. Kudos to Bill Self a new member of the Coach's Penthouse.

BASKETBALL OBSERVATIONS DAY 2

The Assistant Coach has more observations after watching day 2 of the tournament:

1) The Pac 10 proved the Assistant Coach correct in that it is still a not an elite basketball conference.

The Pac 10 lost another "Sweet 16" game by over 20 points on its way to a less than stellar overall tournament record of 7-5. That is 58 percent...or mediocre, or average, or so-so or however you want to put it. Six teams into the tournament are you kidding. They rank behind 4 other conferences that got 3 or more teams into the tournament (The Big 12, ACC, Big East and even the Atlantic 10).

2) Stephen Curry is not a sleeper, he is the real deal.

This guy can flat out shoot it. His quick release is deadly. His patience and composure is amazing. He doesn't take bad shots and he fits perfectly into Bob McKillop system. He is averaging 34.5 points a game and made a believer out of me.

3) Davidson coach Bob McKillop deserves more credit.

All you here about is how Stephen Curry has led Davidson into the Elite 8 but I have to tell you the credit needs to go out to coach McKillop. His system is perfect for the Davidson squad. He puts the ball into the hands of a good ball handler and then runs Curry off multiple picks. His team knows what is expected of them. To have one of the top scorers in the nation and one of the leading assist men in the nation is not coincidence, its about execution of a system. Curry is amazing but it is McKillop's system that allows it to happen. Bob McKillop makes The Assistant Coach's penthouse.

4) Memphis will miss free throws but doesn't matter if they continue to win by 20.

Who cares about free throws..."just win baby".

5) Kansas may have the easiest road to the Final Four ever.

Can you think of another Final Four team that has not played a team seeded higher than 8? The Jayhawks are good and are my prediction to win it all but they have had an easy road. They played a 16 seed (Portland St), and 8 seed (UNLV), 12 (Villinova) and now play a 10 seed (Davidson). We really don't know how good this Kansas team is.

THE ASSISTANT COACH'S OBSERVATIONS

After watching the first two games of the NCAA basketball tournament a few things became apparent:

1) You had better make free throws.
West Virginia missed crucial free throws that would have won the game in regulation or sealed the victory in overtime. Memphis is in trouble.

2) You had better be able to play a zone defense.
Washinton State learned the hard way that if you are not as athletic as the team you are playing then are in trouble. WSU does not play zone and I think this hurt them. Not saying that they would have won this game but it might have changed the tempo. The Cougs wanted a slower tempo and a zone defense at strategic moments might have slowed the Tarheels down. It also might have made them shoot outside shots instead of layins.

3) Great coaching prevails in the end.
What a great play diagrammed by Xavier coach Sean Miller late in the game with 2 seconds on the shot clock. He knew that West Virginia would switch all screens in their match up zone so he had his best inside scorer set a backpick for his shooter who flared to the opposite wing. The result...a skip pass, miscommunication and a three pointer as the shot clock expired. Great coaching gets Xavier a big win.

4) You better be able to shoot it especially from behind the arc.
Just ask the defensive minded Cougars who shot 31 percent from the field and made only 12 percent from 3 point land on its way to a 20 point loss. North Carolina on the other hand shot 48 percent and 33 from behind the arc. You have to be able to stroke it to make a run at the title.

5) Posting in the middle of the key is difficult to stop.
Bob Huggins got a lot of mileage out of having his best player Joe Alexander catch the ball at the top of the key and then having his post duck into the middle of the key. The defender has to make a choice on which side to defend and Alexander would either stroke the 3 or pass away from the defense. Great philosophy.

6) The 15 foot bank shot is underrated.
After watching Joe Alexander hit shot after shot using the backboard and then tying the game with a clutch 15 foot bank shot I became a fan, of both Alexander and the bank shot. The bank shot is difficult to block, you don't have to worry about velocity and it is easy to teach. I'm sold.

BASKETBALL COACH BRAUN FIRED AT CAL A SIGN OF THE TIMES

The question involving basketball coaches these days is not "what have you done for me lately" it is more like "what have you done for me today". When head basketball coach Ben Braun was fired yesterday from the California Bears basketball program it showed me that it in not about productivity but about expectations. Does California Athletic Director Sandy Barbour truly understand how to measure success?

"Ultimately, the bottom line is that we just didn't win enough basketball games" Barbour said.

Really...Braun is 10th all time in wins. She needed to change that statement to "NOT ENOUGH BASKETBALL GAMES THIS YEAR" because I guess 219 games (over 18 a season)in what many would call one of the toughest conferences is not enough. Here are some other basketball achievements that Mrs. Barbour thought was not enough:

535 victories (10th all-time)....but that is not enough!

2nd among current Pac 10 coaches in overall wins...but that is not enough!

Has been to the post season more than any coach in Cal basketball history...but that is not enough!

Holds the best winning percentage at Cal since the Hall of Famer Pete Newell...but that is not enough!

Has had 20 wins or more in 4 of his last 7 years...but that is not enough!

Expectations sunk Ben Braun and his career at California. It is a shame when we forget to look at history and what coaches have done. How soon we forget that Braun and his California team were 10-2 early in the season. How soon we forget that Braun and California lost 4 of its last 5 games to teams in the top 30 RPI or that 5 of its losses came either in overtime or to UCLA. How soon we forget...it is a shame. Ben Braun should still be coaching California Golden Bear basketball team and Athletic Directors should do some research before they fire a Cal legend.

What do you think? Answer the poll question.

AND THE ASSISTANT BASKETBALL COACH'S WINNER IS....

The Assistant Basketball Coach has been called out by his readers..."Where is the analysis?Make a prediction" said one loyal fan. Well, after much thought, he/she is right so here are my predictions for the 2008 tournament:

1) Memphis will miss too many free throws to win the National Title

Only 2 teams have won the title shooting less than 60 percent and only 1 team since 1985 (Connecticut) has won the title shooting less than 65 percent. Memphis shoots a woeful 59 percent. This alone will keep a 1 loss team from winning it all.

2) If a team has an 8 point lead or more with 2:00 to go they will win the game

If a team has an 8 point lead under 2:00 then will win an amazing 98 percent of the time.

3) Stephen Curry (my true sleeper from an earlier blog) will be held under his tournament average against Wisconsin.

Wisconsin's Flowers may be the best defender in the nation and Curry will not fly under the radar like he did in the first 2 rounds.

4) The winner of the National Title will NOT come from the Pac 10

Only 1 Pac 10 team have won the title since 1997.

5) The winner of the National Title will have at least 30 wins

Only 1 team since 1985 (Arizona had 25-figures a Pac 10 team) has had fewer than 30 wins.

6) North Carolina will beat Washington State

North Carolina has too many weapons and is more athletic than Washington State. Also good offense beats good defense when you get to the round of 16 and beyond.

7) Kansas will win the National Title in 2008

Over the past 5 years every team that has gone on win the National Title has been in the top 10 in points scored per 100 possessions and the top 20 in points allowed per 100 possessions. Kansas and Davidson are the only teams that fit that criteria (Kansas ranks 1 and 4 respectfully while Davidson ranks 10 and 19). Therefore, I am going with Kansas to cut down the nets.

The Assistant Basketball Coach says you can take these predictions to the bank. Let me know what you think.

Tags:

College Basketball,Basketball,Washington State Basketball,Kansas Basketball,North Carolina Basketball,Memphis Basketball,National Title

WSU/CAROLINA BASKETBALL- THE ASSISTANT COACH SAYS SOMETHING HAS TO GIVE

DEFENSE VS OFFENSE: THE ULTIMATE BATTLE

North Carolina has been totally dominate during the first two rounds of the NCAA tournament. In fact they have been so dominate that the Arkansas coach half jokingly said "We probably could have started six today, and I don't know if that would've helped or not." This Tarheel team became the first team to score 100 points in the first 2 rounds since the 1990 Loyola Marymount team which use to try to shoot within 8 seconds. North Carolina scores in a hurry,it ran out to 51-26 halftime lead and then won by 31 on its way to becoming only the third team to defeat its first two opponents by 20 or more points. This team is G-O-O-D. They have a great point guard, an All-American post, a bench that is endless and a coach that is one of the best.

Washington State on the other hand prides itself on defense. Wazzu became the fourth team in history (since the induction of the shot clock) to hold both it's opponents to under 50 points. Washington State shut down Winthrop and then held a Notre Dame team to just 24 percent shooting (the fifth lowest total ever in the 1st 2 rounds) and 41 points which was 40 under its average. It has one of the best perimeter defenders in the country in Kyle Weaver, a defensive philosophy that contests all shots and a tough minded coach who knows how to get his players to execute a game plan.

So something has to give. I can't wait to find out what it is.

Would you rather have a great defense or a great offense? Answer the poll question.

BASKETBALL SUCCESS NOT IN 16 BUT FINAL 4

The Pac 10 survived to fight another day as 3 teams made it past the second round and made it to the "Sweet 16"...good for them but does that mean that it is the top conference in basketball. I stand firm and stick to my claim that the Pac 10 is overrated. The Pac 10 got 6 teams into the NCAA tournament this year and have averaged 4 or more the last 3 years. That is way too much credit for a conference that has produced only 3 final four teams. Now, if you believe success lies in getting to the "Sweet 16" then the Pac 10 has done okay but if you like me think that success lies in making the Final Four or the winning the Big Dance then the Pac 10 has underachieved and therefore has been given way to much credit. Six teams into the tournament and 9 making the post season come on. Lets look at the facts:

Final Four teams since 2000 by conference:

ACC - 8

Big Ten - 7

Big 12 - 5

Pac 10, SEC, Big East - 3

Made Championship Game since 2000:

ACC, SEC, Big 10 - 3

Pac 10, Big East - 2

Titles since 2000:

ACC -3

Big 10, Big East, SEC - 2

Big 12 - 1

Pac 10 - 0 (last title was 1997 by Arizona)

Notice that the Pac 10 is behind the Big 10 in every category and does not even rate as high as the Big 12 in terms of Final Four's made. The Pac 10 has only 3 Final Fours, yet gets six teams into the tournament! Why is it then that the Pac 10 gets so much credit? The Pac 10 has not proven that it is a top conference. It can't compete with the Big 10 or the ACC when it comes to success...aka..making the Final Four.

Now if a conference ever deserved more teams into the tournament it would be the Big 10. The Big 10 has proven that it produces when given the chance, in fact 5 different teams have made the Final Four (Michigan St., Indiana, Wisconsin, Illinois and Ohio St.) since 2000. The Big 10 deserved 6 teams not the Pac 10. Now, we will see this year as the Big 10 has only 2 teams left while the Pac 10 has 3 but if I were a betting man, I would bet history and the conference that has produced in the past; the BIG 10.

STANFORD ASSISTANT BASKETBALL COACH IS PRICELESS

Tuition to Stanford = $36,000

Head Coach Trent Johnson's salary= over $450,000 (actual salary not released)

Great Assistant Coach = Priceless

You can't put a price on a good assistant coach. Doug Oliver of Stanford proved this Saturday when he took over after Trent Johnson was thrown out of the game for arguing a call. Oliver took a team down by 6 at half and led them into overtime. In the extra period, the ex-Idaho State assistant with over 34 years of coaching went to his bread and butter play which was to get the ball to the guy he coaches on a daily basis, Brook Lopez and let him go to work. Lopez hit a tough game winner to send Stanford into the "Sweet 16". Oliver didn't panic when Marquette took a 1 point lead with under 10 second to play and took a crucial timeout to set up the game winner. Fearless and decisive this assistant coach underlined the importance of having great help on the bench. As a fellow assistant, my hat goes out to Oliver and all those unsung heroes waiting for their turn to shine.

PAC-10 BASKETBALL OVERRATED

Every year the talk at the end of the regular season is how tough the Pac-10 conference is but it seems like every year the Pac-10 disappoints in the post season. This year the Pac-10 got 5 at-large bids and 6 total teams into the "Big Dance" and 9 of the 10 teams made the post season. Is the Pac-10 really that good? I think not...In fact it is not even the second best conference in the nation. UCLA is good but one team does not a conference make. Lets take a look:

In 2008 the Pac-10 is just 3-3 with all 3 losses coming in the 1st round. The top team UCLA is very good and may win it this year but after that you will be hard pressed to find a team that has a legit shot at making the final 4.

Stanford has probably the next best shot at making a deep run but their only quality win out of conference was...wait I am still searching...okay....maybe Colorado. Now, Stanford did beat Washington St. in overtime and Washington (loser in the 1st round of the CBI) but they did lose to 13th seeded Siena.

Washington State is a good team that also does not have any quality wins outside the Pac-10. They did beat some 1st round tournament losers though (Boise St., Mississippi Valley State, Baylor, and Gonzaga) so they have proven that they are better than the top 50 teams, but in order to reach the final four they will need some help. They need to get the right matchup (see my blog below on WSU Wish List) to make a run and I think Notre Dame is not that matchup.

Next comes the first round losers in Arizona, Oregon and USC. Arizona's only good out of conference wins came against A&M and UNLV and on top of that they were limping into the tournament with a 19-14 record. Not a good resume.

USC was every one's sleeper but their only good non-conference win came against Oklahoma. They then proceed to lose to a 3rd place team in an average Big-12 conference. USC was a sleeper...they slept their way right into watching the 2nd round on television.

Okay what about Oregon? Well they may have had a chance to win a game or two if they would ever venture inside the 3 point line. Instead they sat outside and shot 3's and were sent home. It is not surprising though as Oregon had lost 9 or its last 15 games going into the tournament.

We then get to the 3 other post season teams Arizona State, California, and Washington. Average, Bad and worse. Arizona State could not even beat out a St. Mary's team from the WCC to get a bid so how good could they really be? They also lost 10 of their last 15, not something that gives you confidence.

California had lost 8 of its last 10 and still made the NIT and Washington for some reason made the CBI and proceeded to prove how good the Pac-10 is by losing to a team that I can't even pronounce the name.

The Pac-10 is overrated. It is not as deep as everyone believes and they don't deserve 6 bids to the NCAA. Look back at history. It has been since 2001 that a team from the Pac-10 other than UCLA has made it to the final four and if you take out the UCLA's 11 championships, the Pac-10 has only 4 titles to its name. So if you are betting on anyone other than UCLA from the Pac-10 to win the title then I got two words for you..."Good Luck".

HUSKIES SHOULD HAVE STAYED HOME

My mother use to tell me that "if you don't have anything good to say then blog it"...so here goes. Why in the world did the Huskies accept the invitation to the play in the CBI? I can't figure it out. It was a no win situation. It reminds me of when a high school varsity team scrimmages its own JV. If you win, big deal, you are suppose to win and if you lose it leaves a bad taste in your mouth. Well, this CBI fiasco in which a 16-16 Washington Husky team loses to Valparaiso team left me tasting liver and onions. The Huskies ponied up $60,000 to host this game and then showed why they needed to be home studying for finals. It was dissapointing on many levels, here is just a few:

• They will finish the season under 500 (the first time since 2003)


• They drew only 3,227 fans...well under what needed to make it worthwhile and well under their season average of 9,069


• They missed their last 8 shots


• They didn't score in the final 3 minutes


• They missed 2 free throws at the end and only 11-24 for the game illustrating why they are one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the nation.


• Best case scenario they are the 113th best team in the nation (I would say they are much worse then that).


• It brings into question how good the Pac 10 really is.


• It may also bring in doubt in mind of Husky fans about Romar and his future.


• They could have been studying.

So why did the Huskies accept the invite?... "For the experience". Well, I hope the Huskies learn from this experience and think twice about accepting an invitation to play in a pointless third tier tournament in the future. My mother also told me that "sometimes it is better to have avoided a fight then to have fought and disgrace yourself."

HUSKIES PICKED AS 98TH BEST BASKETBALL TEAM

Jim Mora summed it up best when he said, "PLAYOFFS?...ARE YOU KIDDING ME!?...PLAYOFFS!?". Sunday, the Washington Husky men's basketball team learned that they had made the playoffs...not the NCAA tournament...not even the NIT tournament...but the College Basketball Invitational Tournament. The new CBI is now the third tournament for college basketball teams nationwide, meaning 113 teams will continue their season...one of those being the Huskies. If the Huskies win the CBI title (which they are a 4-1 favorite to do) they will be considered the 98th best team in the nation. Sounds funny doesn't it. Well it is funny and sad. The Huskies have no business being in the post season even if you consider they play in one of the toughest conferences in America. Come on, lets not celebrate mediocrity...let the poor kids go back to what they are in College for; studying. The Huskies need to turn down this invitation, they do not deserve it. They finished the season 16-16 in 8th place in the Pac 10. That's right 8th place! It could also be argued that they are the 9th best team in a 10 team conference as they lost in the Pac 10 tourney to California. Does an 9th place team really deserve to play a post season game? The Huskies are just not a very good team this year as was apparent when late in the season Oregon State (a 6 win team with an RPI of 269) took them to the final minutes before losing. If the Huskies have any dignity they will pass on this "opportunity" and save the $60,000 it costs to host a CBI game. Let 2009 season begin now.

THE GOOD, THE BAD, THE UNBELIEVABLE

Washington State (The Good)

Well it looks like my wish list worked, Washington State was paired up with their clone Winthrop. In yesterday's blog, I asked the tournament committee to pair WSU with someone that was not in the top 100, was not a great offensive team and that did not have a great big man. CHECK, CHECK, CHECK. Winthrop is talented but they are very similar to Washington State. Both play tough man to man defense in which they try to contest all shots, neither team presses and both are not great on offense. The WSU advantage is in their inside game. Winthrop has no one to bang with Baynes. So look for WSU to make it past the first round but I am not so sure they are a sure fire "Sweet 16" with Notre Dame looming in the mist.

Gonzaga (The Bad)

Davidson....This is a bad draw for a so so Gonzaga team. Davidson has one of the best guards in the country in Stephen Curry, a point guard who is one of the leaders in assists and the nation's longest winning streak at 22. Not good news for Gonzaga. Gonzaga's guards will not be able to match up with the Davidson back court and without a true inside presence and no average three point shooters....all I can say is "UPSET".

Tiger Woods (The Unbelievable)

I know it is not basketball related but "WOW". Tiger makes a 25 foot on the last hole (in a dramatic comeback) of the Arnold Palmer Invitational to win his 5th straight PGA event. He has won 9 of his last 10 events world wide and 64 events total. Tiger is on top of his game and should be considered the best ever. His mental concentration is unrivaled and should be studied by sports fans, coaches and player. Amazing.

WSU BASKETBALL COACH'S WISH LIST

It may not be Christmas but the Washington State basketball team better begin putting it's wish list together for the 2008 tournament draw...because if they don't get what they need they may be one and done. In order for WSU to make a run in the "Big Dance" they need the right team in the right place. So I have sent a letter to the NCAA tournament committee on their behalf...I hope it works.

Dear Tournament Committee,

I know you are busy this time of year and you probably don't remember us too well, but we are the team that surprised the nation last year by going 26-8 in the tough PAC 10 Conference under a first year coach and then winning a game in the tournament. Well, we have been really good this year, going 24-8 and would really appreciate it if you could help us out today with the tournament draw.

Here is our wish list:

1. A team that does not have a dominant center. We struggle against bigger people. I don't know why but 5 of 8 losses came against teams with a strong inside presence (3 to Stanford and 2 to UCLA). Aron Baynes and company are no match for really talented big men such as the Lopez twins or Kevin Love.

2. A team that is not in the top 50. We are only 4-7 against those teams so we would like to avoid them until the championship.

3. A team that is ranked 100 or worse. We are 12-0 against these type of teams. We would love to play a Winthrop (107 RPI) or Mt. St. Mary's (159 RPI) but if you can't do that then maybe you could set up a game against Washington (we just beat them for the 7th straight time you know).

4. A team that does not have a good offense. Our strength is with our man to man defense and we don't play a zone. We also have a hard time scoring at times so we want a low scoring outcome. We have only won 3 games when our opponent has scored 70 or more (and one went into double overtime). Somebody like Mississippi Valley State (62.7 points a game) or even Illinois (64 points a game) would do.

5. A game outside the West Coast but not in the Midwest. We don't seem to do well at home (4 losses) and all of our losses have been to teams close to home...well as you know nothing is truly close to Pullman. We also want to stay out of the Midwest if possible. If Tony Bennett sees how nice it is for recruiting he may just stay and we would be back to watching the Big Dance on Television.

and last but not least

6. We would like to play Indiana. Give us a chance to prove that our program is more deserving of Tony Bennett's services.

Thank You Tournament Committee,

Signed Concerned

2008: THE YEAR OF THE BASKETBALL GUARD

A center will get you there but a guard will bring you the trophy. Guards more than any other position are at a premium come tournament time. You MUST have a top-flight guard to make a deep run at the trophy. Yeah, having a center or a slashing forward helps but give a great guard any day. Give me a guard that can score, handle it and lead and I will be smelling sweet.."Sweet Sixteen" that is.

Here is why:

3 pointers
The three-point shot has changed the game. The top teams in college basketball (Duke, Tennessee, Memphis) shoot and make 3 pointers. Who better to fire 3's then your guards. If you struggle at the guard position you most likely will struggle at from beyond the arc. That is why Gonzaga is on the decline, (see my blog: Gonzaga Slipper Gone) their guards don't hit 3's. By having a guard that can fill it from 3 point range, you are never out of ball game, you are more likely to be able to extend a lead, you make the defense guard the whole floor and you make it difficult for your opposition to zone you. What more do you want?

Creating Shots
What do teams do when the shot clock gets low...they get the ball to the point guard and let him go. You need to be able to create shots when the clock is running out. Good teams now days are not running set plays or calling timeouts at the end of the game but allowing their guards to create their own shot. Many teams will set a pick 30 feet from the hoop to open up the guards for the drive. You need a guard that can create a shot when the game is on the line.

Leadership
The point guard is the coach on the floor. They set up plays, dominate the ball, and distribute to others. A team's guards provide the much needed leadership that can be the difference between success and failure. With so many freshman and sophomores playing important minutes, you better have a good guard that can provide some stability and leadership for the team. They need to be able to put people in the right spots and motivate them to perform. When is the last time you saw a big man be the leader of the team?

Free Throws
Who are a team's best free throw shooters? Most likely the guards. I didn't make this rule it just is. Look at who is leading the nation in free throw percentage at 96%: a 5'9 guard from St. Martin's University named Jake Linton. Guards make free throws. Therefore you better have a guard that you can count on to hit free throws when you need them. There is no worse feeling then losing a game you should have won because you missed free throws down the stretch. Good guards that can hit 3's and make free throws will win you more games.

Behind every good team you will find a quality guard; one that can shoot, pass, penetrate and lead. Here are the teams to watch out for in the 2008 tourney:

Tennessee (Chris Lofton)
Duke (Greg Paulus)
Memphis (Derrick Rose)
Davidson (Stephen Curry) - true sleeper
UCLA (Darren Collison)
Texas (D.J. Augustin)
North Carolina (Ty Lawson)
Georgetown (Jonathan Wallace)

Let me know what you think.

IN OR OUT: NCAA BASKETBALL TOURNAMENT BUBBLE

Lets play a quick game of IN or OUT. I will give you 4 teams to choose from, pick the 2 teams you think should be in the NCAA tournament. The only catch is, I will not give you the team name but will give you their key statistics (Overall Record, Conference Record, RPI, Strength of Schedule and Last 10 games). Ready to play:


Team A: 24-6, 12-3, RPI 37, SOS 136, L10 7-3


Team B: 19-13, 9-10, RPI 51, SOS 7, L10 5-5


Team C: 20-10, 9-7, RPI 43, SOS 40, L10 5-5


Team D: 24-7, 16-4, RPI 57, SOS 157, L10 8-2




Scroll down to find out who you chose and my analysis:

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BUBBLE TEAMS

Team A = St. Mary's (24-6, 12-3, RPI 37, SOS 136, 7-3)

Team B = Syracuse (19-13, 9-10, RPI 51, SOS 7, 5-5)

Team C = Arkansas (20-10, 9-7, RPI 43, SOS 40, 5-5)

Team D = Virginia Commonwealth (24-7, 16-4, RPI 57, SOS 157, 8-2)


My Analysis

Forget the RPI, forget the SOS and look at wins. The point of basketball is to win games, period. A school for the most part can not control their schedule (due to the conference they are in, the availability of home games, the prestige of the school or even money). Strength of schedule should not matter. If you win over 20 games now that is a big deal. If you have won your last 9 games now that is a big deal. The object is to win so lets reward those schools who have won games. It is much more exciting when a Virginia Commonwealth wins a first or second round game then when an underachieving Arkansas or Syracuse wins those games. What makes the tournament is the underdog. You win 24 games you deserve a shot to "shock the world". That is why Virginia Commonwealth and St. Mary's would be my picks.





Record your choices in the poll.

BENNETT TO INDIANA? A BASKETBALL NO BRAINER

Tony Bennett must see the writing on the wall...you can't win an NCAA title at Washington State! It is just not going to happen. Yeah, you may win 20 games, win a few 1st round games, bring in some fans but you are not going to bring home an NCAA trophy. It is just too difficult in a place like Pullman...so Indiana here he comes.

Its a no brainer and here is why:

He has ties to the Midwest

• He grew up in the Midwest
• He played ball at UW-Green bay
• He was an assistant Wisconsin
• One of his best recruits at WSU came from the Midwest (ie...Kyle Weaver)
• His sister and father coached in the Midwest (Indiana and Wisconsin)

Money, Mullah, Dough, Greenbacks etc...

• Bennett would probably double or triple his $800,000 salary (if you can't win a title your next best option is to make some money trying)
• Better facilities
• More exposure
• More endorsement deals

Big Ten suits his style

• Defense wins in the big ten
• His dad was successful with the same system in the Big Ten

Indiana is a recruiting haven

• At Indiana, you can get the top recruits of the state (WSU may not even get the top recruits of out of Spokane)
• Indiana's lore and tradition will help in recruiting
• Bob Knight and Dick Bennett are close friends which will also help in recruiting
• If he can recruit at WSU he WILL be able to recruit at Indiana

Potential to win a National Title

• Isn't this what coaches at the top of their games want more than anything else?

What do you think? Answer the poll question.

GONZAGA BASKETBALL'S SLIPPER IS GONE

With Gonzaga losing the WCC championship to upstart San Diego the other day, I came to realize that the Gonzaga Cinderella run is officially over. They will never be the powerhouse mid major they were hoping for. Gonzaga has prided itself on winning the right way; through great recruiting of good character kids that slipped past the major colleges and then flying under the radar into the NCAA tournament. That is no longer the case. Here are my reasons why Gonzaga is no longer that team.


1. Recruiting
2. Domination
3. Expectations
4. Aspirations


Lets take a closer look:


Recruiting


Gonzaga made its run recruiting good character kids who slipped under the radar. These players were talented but did not choose to go Division I. Look back and you will see what I mean. From Matt Santangelo to Richie Frohm to Casey Calvary to Blake Steppe to Cory Violette, these players made Gonzaga into an institution you could not look past. They were quality people who only made the headlines for things they did on the court. Not saying all these players were angels but I am saying that they worked hard and for the most part stayed out of trouble. These players put Gonzaga on the map by doing things the right way. Now, with greater expectations for getting the "Big Time" recruit, Gonzaga has compromised its tradition. They went after questionable character kids who were more talented then most:

Example A: Micha Downs - Seven different high schools and 2 different colleges in five years.
http://www.spokesmanreview.com/blogs/zags/archive.asp?postID=971

Example B: Josh Heytfelt
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/news/story?id=2772547

Example C: Theo Davis - See above


When you put your future in the hands of questionable kids you are bound to be burned and Gonzaga is feeling the burn this year.


Gonzaga has also missed the boat by getting away from the formula for its success: Underrated Guards + Good Shooters + a Power forward

Take a look at teams of the past and their stats:

1999-2000
Richie Frahm and Matt Santangelo combined for 157 three pointers and over 30 points a game
Casey Cavalry gave them the force inside scoring by scoring 13 points and 6.5 rebounds a game


2001-2002

Dan Dickou made 117 three pointers and average over 21 points a game
Cory Violette was the second leading scorer with 13 points and 8 rebounds
Zach Gourde added 6 rebounds and more muscle in the middle


2002-2003
Blake Steppe made over 98 three pointers and averaged 19 points a game
Rony Turiaf averaged over 6 points a game and was a force down low
Cory Violette averaged 8 rebounds that year

Compare that to 2007:

Matt Bouldin and Jeremy Pargo (the leading scorers) have a combined 66 three pointers and only 24 points a game
Nobody on the team has more than 4.9 rebounds a game

Best players can't shoot and no muscle inside. They have become a finesse team with average players. Not Gonzaga tradition.The formula for success at Gonzaga has not changed...recruit underrated good character kids who can shoot the 3 and rebound.

Domination


No longer does Gonzaga dominate their conference. Teams are catching up. Gonzaga loses the WCC conference tournament which it has dominated for so long. No longer is Gonzaga the powerhouse, teams have caught up.


Expectations


With so much success in the past, Gonzaga has new expectations put on them.They must win their tournament, and make at least the sweet sixteen. These kids from Spokane have never had those expectations before. With high expectations comes pressure and Gonzaga is feeling the pressure and this is causing them to do things they normally wouldn't do. The coaches are feeling the pressure to recruit nationally known players and have had to change the system to fit these kids (see recruiting). Gonzaga is cracking under this pressure and expectations.



Aspirations


With success comes aspirations. Mark Few has contemplated making a move to a more prestigious college, http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/cbasketball/263993_miller23.html. This talk puts doubt in the player's heads..."is he going to leave?", "does he really care about us?", "why is he leaving?". This doubt is not good for a program on the decline..ie UCLA football.


As Gonzaga moves into the tournament and loses in the first or second round watch the fireworks....you will see Gonzaga slip and become just another mid major college basketball team.


What do you think? Answer the poll question.

BASKETBALL SHOT CLOCK OVER RATED SAYS THE ASSISTANT COACH

I witnessed history first hand at Key Arena this past weekend. It came during a boys basketball State Tournament game between an over matched 13-16 West Seattle team and a highly favored 22-3 Auburn team. On paper this was a mismatch, Auburn was ranked #2 for most of the season and sported a lineup of 6'4, 6'4, 6'4 while West Seattle had to win 3 loser out games just to get to the tournament. To make matters worse for West Seattle, they were without their leading scorer. This looked like the makings of a 30 point blowout; no way would they be in the game in the fourth quarter. But they were and what came out of this game will forever be inscribed in the record books as the lowest scoring game in State Tournament history. The final score 34-21 Auburn. It wasn' t the score that inspired me to write about this game in my blog but it was the way the game was played.


West Seattle coach Bob Wilzen had his players stall for 4-5 minutes every possession. They spread the floor and held the ball and held the ball and held ball as Auburn stayed in their zone. By the fourth quarter, West Seattle was down only 8 points and had the ball. THEY WERE REMARKABLY IN THE GAME. They had a chance to win. Most would agree that West Seattle did not belong in the game in the fourth quarter, in fact most would probably say both sides would have emptied their benches by this point. West Seattle had a chance to win.


What more can a coach do but to give his team a chance to win?


Ingenious. I really have to compliment coach Wilzen on his game plan and his kids for sticking to it. Now, it would have been better had they won and I think the game plan could have been better implemented at times but the game plan gave his kids hope. What more can you ask for?


I would also like to compliment the Auburn coach Ryan Hansen, he didn't give in. He stayed with his game plan and stayed in his zone. With both crowds booing, it is tough for a coach to stay true to what he believes. But Hansen did and it paid off. Hansen stated after the game that "they must come to us sometime" and he was right. West Seattle had to try to make up those 8 points and the game soon turned into a 13 point win for Auburn.



The point is...both coaches stuck with their game plans and gave their kids the best chance to win even though unpopular. This would never have happened if the Washington Interscholastic Activities Association (WIAA) had implemented a shot clock in boys basketball. Before seeing this game first hand, I too was leaning towards implementing a 45 second shot clock. I figured no one really uses more than a 1 minute or so to get a shot off so why not put in a shot clock. I thought a shot clock might speed up the game and make if more fun to watch, but then I witnessed history. I witnessed coaches making tough decisions and witnessed kids executing a game plan. I witnessed a close game. The high school game is not about the fans, it is about the kids. Which is better for the kids... a 30 point blowout or making history? West Seattle and Auburn made history, this game will always be remembered. Do you think this game would have been remembered if they played with a shot clock...probably not.


What do you think? Answer the poll question.

ENDGAME COACHING DECISION: FOUL OR NO FOUL

As a long time assistant basketball coach my first blog is an easy one...here is the scenario:

Imagine that your basketball team is up 3 points with 7 seconds left in the game. Your opponent has the ball on their own end line, ready to try to tie the game and send it into overtime. What do you do? Do you let your opponents sprint down the court and take a 3 point shot while you play tight defense or do you have the guts to foul and take your chance getting a rebound?

How many times have you seen the trailing team make some wild shot that sends the game into overtime? Many of those Cinderella upsets in the 1st and 2nd round of the NCAA tournament could have been avoided by doing the right thing and FOULING...I know, I know it sounds risky but if more coaches did it and saw the results I guarantee it would catch on like the match up zone or the pick and roll. Just ask Bruce Pearl of Tennessee. In the face of a pressure filled #1 vs #2 matchup with Memphis, Pearl took the initiative and fouled the Memphis guard as he brought the ball up. Result: missed free throw, rebound and a win. Genius!!! I have no idea why more coaches don't do this. It seems so simple, easy and effective. So lets take a closer look.

First, what has to happen for the Tennessee and Memphis to end in a TIE if Tennessee is to foul and send Memphis to the line to shoot free throws:

1. Memphis must make the 1st free throw (about 75%).

2. Memphis must then miss the 2nd free throw (not a given).

3. Memphis must get the rebound outnumbered 4-3 on the lane (difficult task).


4. Memphis must then make a shot (another difficult task) to tie the game.


Now if Pearl allows Memphis to drive the length of the court and attempt a 3 here what could happen:

1. He makes the shot and the game is tied (bad result).

2. He misses the shot and Tennessee wins (good result)

3. He misses the shot but is fouled shooting a 3 pointer (many possibilities come out this event)

4. He makes the shot and is fouled and makes the free throw and Tennessee loses (unlikely but still possible. A very bad result)

I like my chances fouling as opposed to letting a team get off a shot to tie and here is why:

• Teams practice 3 point shots (sometimes last second shots) but not many practice missing free throws.
• You should be able to get the rebound on the miss

a. you practice this every day
b. you have inside position
c. you can substitute your best rebounders into the game
d. you outnumber your opponent 4-3 on the lane

• The missed free throw attempt may go in (try it)
• You're being proactive as opposed to being reactive. YOUR team just has to get a rebound as oppose to your opponent having to miss. The game is in YOUR team's hands.
• You can work on your fouling technique in practice.
• You may have fouls to give increasing the chance that the other team does not get a sh
• You are roughly 4 times less likely to "blow the lead".
  *See Adrian Lawhorn's analysis:http://www.82games.com/lawhorn.htm
  *See David Annis's analysis: http://www.sportsquant.com/AnnisJQAS1030.pdf
• It is revolutionary

It is time for coaches to make the tough decision. Take the ball out of the other team's best player and win more games BEFORE overtime. I love the excitement of March Madness but not at the expense of common sense.


What do you think? Answer the poll question.