ENDGAME COACHING DECISION: FOUL OR NO FOUL

As a long time assistant basketball coach my first blog is an easy one...here is the scenario:

Imagine that your basketball team is up 3 points with 7 seconds left in the game. Your opponent has the ball on their own end line, ready to try to tie the game and send it into overtime. What do you do? Do you let your opponents sprint down the court and take a 3 point shot while you play tight defense or do you have the guts to foul and take your chance getting a rebound?

How many times have you seen the trailing team make some wild shot that sends the game into overtime? Many of those Cinderella upsets in the 1st and 2nd round of the NCAA tournament could have been avoided by doing the right thing and FOULING...I know, I know it sounds risky but if more coaches did it and saw the results I guarantee it would catch on like the match up zone or the pick and roll. Just ask Bruce Pearl of Tennessee. In the face of a pressure filled #1 vs #2 matchup with Memphis, Pearl took the initiative and fouled the Memphis guard as he brought the ball up. Result: missed free throw, rebound and a win. Genius!!! I have no idea why more coaches don't do this. It seems so simple, easy and effective. So lets take a closer look.

First, what has to happen for the Tennessee and Memphis to end in a TIE if Tennessee is to foul and send Memphis to the line to shoot free throws:

1. Memphis must make the 1st free throw (about 75%).

2. Memphis must then miss the 2nd free throw (not a given).

3. Memphis must get the rebound outnumbered 4-3 on the lane (difficult task).


4. Memphis must then make a shot (another difficult task) to tie the game.


Now if Pearl allows Memphis to drive the length of the court and attempt a 3 here what could happen:

1. He makes the shot and the game is tied (bad result).

2. He misses the shot and Tennessee wins (good result)

3. He misses the shot but is fouled shooting a 3 pointer (many possibilities come out this event)

4. He makes the shot and is fouled and makes the free throw and Tennessee loses (unlikely but still possible. A very bad result)

I like my chances fouling as opposed to letting a team get off a shot to tie and here is why:

• Teams practice 3 point shots (sometimes last second shots) but not many practice missing free throws.
• You should be able to get the rebound on the miss

a. you practice this every day
b. you have inside position
c. you can substitute your best rebounders into the game
d. you outnumber your opponent 4-3 on the lane

• The missed free throw attempt may go in (try it)
• You're being proactive as opposed to being reactive. YOUR team just has to get a rebound as oppose to your opponent having to miss. The game is in YOUR team's hands.
• You can work on your fouling technique in practice.
• You may have fouls to give increasing the chance that the other team does not get a sh
• You are roughly 4 times less likely to "blow the lead".
  *See Adrian Lawhorn's analysis:http://www.82games.com/lawhorn.htm
  *See David Annis's analysis: http://www.sportsquant.com/AnnisJQAS1030.pdf
• It is revolutionary

It is time for coaches to make the tough decision. Take the ball out of the other team's best player and win more games BEFORE overtime. I love the excitement of March Madness but not at the expense of common sense.


What do you think? Answer the poll question.